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ach barbara-minto bcisive-model biases business Case cases consultancy criminal-investigation crtical-questions decision-maps dialogue-mapping example Example government hbr-case HBR-Case hbr-cases hrm hypotheses-mapping intelligence kritische-vragen kv-beslisschema mapping mckinsey method military Minto minto-scq-model politics quality-of-information scenario-testing strategy tim-van-gelder